AUD: what labor data to expect tomorrow?
Forecast from Standard Chartered
Australia will release labor market data on Thursday, at 00:30 GMT. Consensus forecast for the employment change in Sep. is -29.6K. Standard Chartered expects +4K. Anyway, both these forecasts will be a huge decline from the record jobs growth in August (+121K). Australian Bureau of Statistics has said today that it will revise the August reading еo the downside.
Consensus forecast for the Australian unemployment rate is an increase to 6.2%. Standard Chartered, however, expects the indicator to remain at 6.1% as the increase in full-time jobs may offset a likely decline in part-time jobs.
“Job data has been stronger so far in 2014 than in 2012 and 2013, with c.15.8K full-time jobs being created per month. However, population growth of circa 28K a month has outpaced this. The unemployment rate will likely remain elevated for the rest of the year owing to improving participation,” predicts Standard Chartered.