GBP awaits the Scotland's decision
How GBP will react to the outcome of today's Scottish referendum? Here are the analysts’ expectations.
Deutsche Bank: Today’s vote is the largest UK risk event in recent memory. The initial market reaction will be binary (we think a ‘yes’ vote would trigger a 4-6% gap lower in the pound versus euro and dollar, while there is limited upside, perhaps only 0.5-1%, on a ‘no’), but more interesting question is what happens next?
JPMorgan: A “No” vote would of course trigger a bounce, but most likely of a smaller magnitude, perhaps 3-4%. A drop of 6-7% in cable is thus possible in the first few weeks after a “Yes” vote for independence.
Credit Agricole: We think the ‘No’ camp will win and look for GBP/USD to bounce back to 1.65 as result.
That's how our German collegue Alex Weber comments the issue: What to expect from the Scots?