FBS: trading plan for Sep. 16
Key events to watch on Tuesday
EUR/USD showed a series of higher lows. However, the bears are quite persistent, and the pair once again turned down from the 200-hour MA. Euro met resistance of the Ichimoku Cloud on H4 and may test the lower Bollinger band at $1.2890. Below this level euro will be vulnerable for a slide to $1.2850 – this is our base scenario. Forecasts for the euro zone’s data due tomorrow are negative. A return above $1.2962 is needed to switch the outlook to bullish with $1.3015 in sight.
GBP/USD managed to close the last week’s gap, but faced resistance at $1.6275 on Monday. Market participants remain nervous ahead of the Scotland’s Independence referendum on Thursday. Don’t miss the inflation data on Tuesday: UK annualized CPI growth is forecasted to slow from 1.6% to 1.5%. Negative surprise could resume the GBP selloff. However, hawkish BOE monetary policy minutes on Wednesday could render some support to the currency.
USD/JPY consolidates slightly below the Friday’s 107.30 high. The BOJ Governor Kuroda will hold a speech on Tuesday. However, this week trader’s attention will be glued to the FOMC meeting on Wednesday – disappointing tone of the Fed will trigger a strong bearish correction. Support lies at 106.60, 106.00 and 105.70.
AUD/USD opened today with a 30-pip gap down on poor data from China and Australia, but then moved higher after finding support in the $0.9000 area. Tomorrow Aussie will trade under impact of the RBA minutes. We view the downtrend as strong, but see some room for correction. Resistance is at $0.9060, $0.9100 ahead of $0.9180. The next downside target is at $0.8950.