Currency Analyst since 2010

Trading plan for July 11

By FX BAZOOKA analytical team

The market will be once again very light on economic data. The main events will be:

USD: FOMC Member Fischer Speaks (20:30 GMT, July 10) – Fisher is a hawk and his comments may be USD-positive

AUD: Home Loans (01:30 GMT)

EUR: German final CPI & WPI (06:30 GMT)

CAD: Employment Change & Unemployment Rate (12:30 GMT)

Trade ideas

EUR/USD has once again returned down on Thursday on worse-than-expected data from France and the dovish ECB bulletin. Support is at $1.3585, $1.3575, $1.3550. Resistance is at $1.3650, $1.3675 and $1.3700. There will be no strong drivers for the pair ahead of the weekend. We expect euro to slide to $1.3550.

GBP/USD is expected to stay in a sideways $1.7180/7080 channel on Friday as there are no important events in the UK scheduled for tomorrow. The advantage remains on the bearish side: the market is clearly oversold, while the weak UK statistics released this week provided a trigger for the bearish correction. Next important support is seen at $1.7060 and $1.7000.

USD/JPY traded under harsh selling pressure on Thursday, testing 101.05. If the pair closes the day below 101.20, it will get a high chance to touch 100.80 on Friday. Resistance is seen at 101.85 and 102.00. Japan’s economic calendar is also empty, so the volatility is expected to be low.

AUD/USD spiked up to $0.9450, but then slid to $0.9360 on mixed data from Australia and lower-than-expected Chinese trade surplus. The pair’s now vulnerable for decline to $0.9340 and $0.9260 driven by FOMC Fisher’s comments and Australian data release.

USD/CAD is trying to base above the uptrend support line since late 2014 which is currently at 1.0615. The pair can recover to 1.0700, 1.0725 and 1.0750. Support is at 1.0620, 1.0600 and 1.0570. The overall trend will remain negative as long as the pair stays below 1.0800. Canada’s employment data will have an impact on the pair.


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