UniCredit: outlook for EUR, GBP, AUD, NZD
EUR: EUR/USD remained on a firm tone after the FOMC minutes. As the peak following the release of US payroll figures has been extended to $1.3649, this level and the $1.3670/1.3680 area have become quite critical for EUR/USD to gain new upside momentum.
GBP: Sterling seems to be having some difficulties in sparking a further rally at the moment and a slightly widening UK trade deficit for May and a steady Bank of England’s meeting outcome are unlikely to alter this picture today. Cable and EUR/GBP may further trade closer to $1.7150 and $0.7950, respectively.
Commodity сurrencies: Australian labor data came in a bit mixed, limiting AUD/USD rise above $0.9400, while NZD/USD hit new post-float peaks at $0.8835. Yet, given the tough FX rhetoric of the RBA and the RBNZ, we do not like buying-on-dips strategies on these pairs and view any occasional new rise more as an attractive selling opportunity towards our medium-term targets of $0.9000 and $0.8400, respectively.