Currency Analyst since 2010

NFP: forecasts of the banks

Release time: 12:30 GMT


Unemployment Rate

Consensus: 214K

Consensus: 6.4%

Previous: 288K

Previous: 6.3%

What do the banks say?

Goldman Sachs: +210K, 6.5%, low market impact

Societe Generale:  +240K, 6.2%, higher USD/JPY

Bank of America: +225K, 6.5%,

Barclays: + 225K, 6.3% (consensus: 6.4%), supporting the USD. A positive job creation surprise together with healthy wage growth would be the most USD positive outcome against all currencies. In contrast, a less inflationary report would only be USD positive against low-yielding currencies.

Credit Suisse: +185K, 6.4%, the sustainability of any knee-jerk move may well come down to whether or not there is any evidence of wage inflation in today’s data.

Watch Average Hourly Earnings (consensus: 0.2%; previous: 0.0%).

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