Elizabeth Belugina
Weekly Outlook

USD/JPY: ourlook for Feb. 27 - Mar. 3

USD/JPY formed a lower interim top just below 113.80. In fact, this top consists of 2 highs, and the second one is lower than the first. Below Feb. 12 low at 112.60 the pair is extremely vulnerable to a decline to 111.70/60 (100-day MA, top of the weekly Ichimoku, February lows, 38.2% Fibo of September-December advance). A decline below this are will open the way for a deeper fall towards 110.00. Resistance is at 113.00, 113.20 and 114.00.
75
Elizabeth Belugina
Weekly Outlook

EUR/USD: ourlook for Feb. 27 - Mar. 3

It was an eventful week for the euro with a significant decline first and the moderate recovery later. The euro keeps feeling negative pressure from the fears about anti-European Union rhetoric from Marine Le Pen ahead of the first round of French elections in April. In addition, the debate about Greek debt relief has once again resurfaced adding to the market’s concerns. The euro area’s preliminary PMI data for both manufacturing and services sectors rose to new cyclical highs but failed to provide support for the single currency. The main thing that let EUR/USD turn upwards was the weakness of the US dollar.
72
Elizabeth Belugina
Weekly Outlook

US dollar: ourlook for Feb. 27 - Mar. 3

The main disappointing factor for the American currency was the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes. Many traders expected the minutes to turn out hawkish, because the recent comments of the Fed’s Chair Janet Yellen were hawkish. However, the central bank’s statement released on Feb. 1 right after the meeting was dovish, and the minutes echoed this dovishness. No wonder that the USD got hit. In addition, the new US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said that that any policy steps the Trump administration takes would likely have a limited impact this year. As a result, the bullish impulse provided by Trump’s pledge to unveil “phenomenal” tax plan evaporated.
94
Elizabeth Belugina
Weekly Outlook

US dollar: outlook for February 20-24

US dollar index rose to 101.75 during the past week before returning back to 100.55 area. Economic data released in the US were mixed. January CPI, PPI, retail sales, building permits and Philly Fed manufacturing index exceeded forecast, although industrial production disappointed. The Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen told the Congress that the regulator could cause a recession if it waited too long to raise interest rates. This statement surprised the market given the sluggish wage growth and the uncertainty created by Donald Trump’s presidency. The market players still don’t believe that the Fed will raise rates 3 times this year and this is diminishing USD strength. The resignation of the US National Security Adviser Michael Flynn did provoke investors’ concerns. However, Trump did promise to unveil a "phenomenal" tax plan in the coming weeks. Hopes of fiscal stimulus should provide the US dollar with some support.
90
Elizabeth Belugina
Weekly Outlook

US dollar: outlook for February 13-17

The US dollar managed to recover during the past week. Positive vibes for the American currency came from the comments of Donald Trump. According to him, he will release a “phenomenal” tax plan in the next few weeks. The market players used to buy USD in November and December on hopes that Trump will take fiscal steps to revive the nation’s economic growth. Then, at the beginning of 2017 traders got disappointed in the US currency as Trump stopped talking about the fiscal stimulus. Now the expectations of higher spending and tax cuts are back, and it’s good for the greenback.
136
Scroll to top