Elizabeth Belugina
Weekly Outlook

US dollar: outlook for January 16-20

The US dollar index (DXY) weakened during the past week after the initial attempt to get towards 103.00. The main negative pressure on the American currency came from the disappointment that President-elect Donald Trump didn’t give more details about fiscal stimulus plans during his news conference. This made the market think that the US dollar has appreciated too much after the presidential election. Better news came from the Federal Reserve: Janet Yellen said that the US economy is doing well. Hawkish comments from the Fed provided some support to the greenback. The US will have a long weekend: banks will be closed on Monday due to the Martin Luther King Day. Traders will be looking at the headlines from the World Economic Forum, which will take place in Switzerland during the entire next week. The US will release Empire State manufacturing index on Tuesday, consumer inflation figures on Wednesday and building permits, Philly Fed manufacturing index, unemployment claims and housing starts on Thursday. Some market participants are closing their USD longs. Others, on the contrary, believe that the greenback may resume growth once Trump reveals information about his stimulus plans. All in all, we think that the greenback will manage to return to the positive dynamics in the medium-term as the US economy is in a good shape, but in the short-term further correction/consolidation is possible. The currency still has support in the 100.85 and 100.50 area (2015 highs). Resistance is in the region of 102.00.
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